{"id":991,"date":"2024-12-17T16:19:24","date_gmt":"2024-12-17T08:19:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/?p=991"},"modified":"2024-12-17T16:19:24","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T08:19:24","slug":"are-language-models-actually-useful-fortime-series-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/?p=991","title":{"rendered":"Are Language Models Actually Useful forTime Series Forecasting?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Abstract<\/h1>\n

\u5927\u578b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08LLMs\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u9886\u57df\u3002\u4f46\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u771f\u7684\u6709\u7528\u5417\uff1f\u5728\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5bf9\u4e09\u79cd\u6700\u65b0\u4e14\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6d88\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u79fb\u9664LLM\u7ec4\u4ef6\u6216\u5c06\u5176\u66ff\u6362\u4e3a\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5c42\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u2014\u2014\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u6240\u63d0\u5347\uff01\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3LLM\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u6548\u679c\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f18\u4e8e\u4ece\u96f6\u5f00\u59cb\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e0b\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e2e\u52a9<\/strong>\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u63a2\u7d22\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u5206\u5757\u548c\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4e0e\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u4f3c<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n

1.Introduction<\/h1>\n

\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u6790\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u75be\u75c5\u4f20\u64ad\u9884\u6d4b [8]\u3001\u96f6\u552e\u9500\u552e\u5206\u6790 [3]\u3001\u533b\u7597\u5065\u5eb7 [25, 16] \u548c\u91d1\u878d [30]\u3002\u8fd1\u671f\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u6790\u9886\u57df\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u5de5\u4f5c\uff08\u5728GitHub\u4e0a\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u4ee3\u7801\u5e93\u603b\u661f\u6807\u8d85\u8fc71200\u4e2a\uff09\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e8e\u5c06\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u5927\u578b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08LLMs\uff09\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u5f02\u5e38\u68c0\u6d4b [14, 49, 21, 4, 5, 31, 13, 43, 15]\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bba\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5904\u7406\u6587\u672c\u4e2d\u987a\u5e8f\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u80fd\u591f\u6cdb\u5316\u5230\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5f53\u4eca\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5df2\u7ecf\u65e0\u5904\u4e0d\u5728\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8bed\u8a00\u5efa\u6a21\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u8054\u7cfb\u4ecd\u7136\u5927\u591a\u672a\u88ab\u660e\u786e\u754c\u5b9a\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u8bed\u8a00\u5efa\u6a21\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4efb\u52a1\u7a76\u7adf\u6709\u591a\u5927\u76ca\u5904\u5462\uff1f
\n\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u7b80\u5355\u5374\u6df1\u523b\uff1a\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u8868\u73b0\u4e0e\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528LLM\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6d88\u878d\u7248\u672c\u76f8\u540c\u6216\u66f4\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u9700\u8981\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c<\/strong>\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6d88\u878d\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6587\u732e\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u5e76\u975e\u6697\u793a\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6709\u7528\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u6fc0\u52a8\u4eba\u5fc3\u4e14\u5145\u6ee1\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u63a8\u7406 [24, 7, 44, 41, 36]\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7406\u89e3 [6] \u548c\u91d1\u878d\u63a8\u7406 [35, 19]\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u65e8\u5728\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u53d1\u73b0\uff1a\u73b0\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5145\u5206\u5229\u7528\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u65e2\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u5185\u5728\u63a8\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u3002
\n\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4e09\u79cd\u6d41\u884c\u4e14\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5 [49, 14, 21] \u8fdb\u884c\u4e09\u9879\u6d88\u878d\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6765\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u516b\u4e2a\u6765\u81ea\u53c2\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u57fa\u51c6\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4ee5\u53ca\u53e6\u4e94\u4e2a\u6765\u81eaMONASH\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6 [12]\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6210\u529f\u590d\u73b0\u4e86\u539f\u59cb\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u63a5\u7740\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5c06\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u66ff\u6362\u4e3a\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5c42\u3001\u57fa\u672c\u7684Transformer\u5757\u3001\u968f\u673a\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5b8c\u5168\u79fb\u9664\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4f9d\u7136\u80fd\u83b7\u5f97\u76f8\u5f53\u6216\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u5728\u53e6\u5916\u4e94\u4e2a\u672a\u88ab\u53c2\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5\u7814\u7a76\u8fc7\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e5f\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u3002
\n\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u5176\u6d88\u878d\u7248\u672c\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u548c\u63a8\u7406\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u66f4\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u548c\u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u6700\u591a\u53ef\u51cf\u5c11\u4e09\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u3002\u968f\u540e\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u63a2\u7a76LLM\u9884\u6d4b\u5668\u6027\u80fd\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7ebf\u6027\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u7531\u5206\u5757\u548c\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u673a\u5236\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u7f16\u7801\u5668\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e0eLLM\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u63a5\u7740\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86LLM\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u80fd\u529b\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u8fc1\u79fb\u5230\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8f93\u5165\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8fdb\u884c\u968f\u673a\u6253\u4e71\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\u6027\u80fd\u5e76\u672a\u51fa\u73b0\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u91cf\u4ec5\u4e3a10%\u7684\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e0b\uff0cLLM\u4e5f\u672a\u80fd\u6539\u5584\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u5efa\u8bae\u57fa\u4e8e\u5927\u578b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u65b9\u6cd5\u66f4\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u9700\u8981\u6587\u672c\u63a8\u7406\u7684\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u5e94\u7528 [4, 11, 37]\u3002
\n\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u8d21\u732e\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a
\n\u2022 \u6211\u4eec\u9488\u5bf9\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u8f93\u5165LLM\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e09\u79cd\u9876\u7ea7\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u5341\u4e09\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d88\u878d\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0LLM\u672a\u80fd\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u548c\u63a8\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u3002
\n\u2022 \u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u91cd\u65b0\u521d\u59cb\u5316LLM\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff08\u5373\u79fb\u9664\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\uff09\u6765\u7814\u7a76LLM\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8f93\u5165\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8fdb\u884c\u968f\u673a\u6253\u4e71\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u672a\u627e\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u8bc1\u636e\u8868\u660eLLM\u80fd\u591f\u6210\u529f\u5c06\u6587\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u5efa\u6a21\u80fd\u529b\u8fc1\u79fb\u5230\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u672a\u663e\u793a\u51faLLM\u5728\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002
\n\u2022 \u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u5206\u5757\u548c\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u673a\u5236\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e0eLLM\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5f53\u524d\u5bf9LLM\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u70ed\u6f6e\u8fc5\u901f\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u4f46LLM\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u6548\u76ca\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u5de8\u5927\u843d\u5dee\u3002<\/p>\n

2.Related Work<\/h1>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u4e0e\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de5\u4f5c\u5927\u81f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u4e2a\u7c7b\u522b\uff1a(i) \u4f7f\u7528LLM\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\uff1b(ii) LLM\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u7f16\u7801\u5668\uff1b(iii) \u9762\u5411\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u9ad8\u6548\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u3002
\n\u4f7f\u7528LLM\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b<\/strong> \u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5927\u578b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08LLMs\uff09[10, 28, 33] \u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u53ca\u5176\u5728\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5c55\u793a\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u6210\u529f\u5730\u5c06LLM\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1 [13, 15, 5, 4]\u3002Chang\u7b49\u4eba [5] \u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u8c03GPT-2\u7684Transformer\u6a21\u5757\u548c\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7f16\u7801\uff0c\u4f7f\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684LLM\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u9f50\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u3002Zhou\u7b49\u4eba [49] \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u5fae\u8c03\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u540d\u4e3a\u201cOneFitAll\u201d\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528GPT-2\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cJin\u7b49\u4eba [14] \u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u91cd\u7f16\u7a0b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06LLM\u7684\u8bcd\u5d4c\u5165\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5d4c\u5165\u5bf9\u9f50\uff0c\u5e76\u5728LLaMA [33] \u4e0a\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u826f\u597d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u8868\u793a\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0cCALF [21] \u548cTEST [31] \u901a\u8fc7\u8c03\u6574\u8bcd\u5d4c\u5165\uff0c\u4f7fLLM\u80fd\u591f\u6709\u6548\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff0cLiu\u7b49\u4eba [22] \u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u80fd\u6269\u5c55\u7528\u4e8e\u5065\u5eb7\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u7c7b\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5982\u5fc3\u7387\u548c\u65e5\u6b65\u6570\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u5728\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4f18\u4e8e\u76d1\u7763\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u3002
\nLLM\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u7f16\u7801\u5668<\/strong> \u4e3a\u4e86\u4f7fLLM\u4ece\u6587\u672c\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5148\u5c06\u6587\u672c\u79bb\u6563\u5316<\/strong>\u5e76\u7f16\u7801\u4e3a1 \u00d7 d\u7684\u8bcd\u8bed\u6807\u8bb0\u5411\u91cf [10, 28, 33]\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u5b66\u4e60\u79bb\u6563\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6807\u8bb0\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u5272\u6210\u91cd\u53e0\u7684\u5757\uff08patch\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u7f29\u77ed\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u957f\u5ea6\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4fdd\u7559\u4e86\u5176\u7279\u5f81 [14, 49, 5, 4, 27, 26]\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3001\u5b63\u8282\u6027\u6210\u5206\u548c\u6b8b\u5dee\u6210\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u89e3 [4, 27]\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0cLiu\u7b49\u4eba [21] \u4f7f\u7528Transformer\u5c06\u591a\u53d8\u91cf\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8f93\u5165\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e0d\u540c\u901a\u9053\u80fd\u591f\u5b66\u4e60\u5176\u4ed6\u901a\u9053\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5d4c\u5165\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ebf\u6027\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u5c42\uff0c\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7f16\u7801\u6295\u5f71\u5230\u4e0e\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3LLM\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002
\n\u5c0f\u578b\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b<\/strong> \u9664\u4e86LLM\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u5f00\u53d1\u66f4\u5c0f\u4e14\u66f4\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6846\u67b6\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u89c4\u6a21\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u6a21\u578b [18, 46, 32, 23, 2]\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cZeng\u7b49\u4eba [45] \u63d0\u51fa\u4e86DLinear\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ed3\u5408\u4e86\u5206\u89e3\u6280\u672f\u7684\u6781\u5176\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u4f18\u4e8e\u5f53\u65f6\u57fa\u4e8eTransformer\u7684\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u67b6\u6784\uff0c\u5982Informer [47]\u3001FEDformer [48] \u548cAutoformer [39]\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0cXu\u7b49\u4eba [42] \u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ec5\u5305\u542b10k\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u8f7b\u91cf\u7ea7\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u6355\u6349\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u76f8\u4f4d\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u6027\u80fd\u4f18\u4e8e\u57fa\u4e8eTransformer\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002
\n![[Are Language Models Actually Useful forTime Series Forecasting?-\u6587\u7ae0\u8868 1&\u8868 2.png]]<\/p>\n

3 \u5b9e\u9a8c\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/h1>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e09\u79cd\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9LLMs\u63d0\u51fa\u4e09\u79cd\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a(i) \u201cw\/o LLM\u201d\uff08\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528LLM\uff09\uff1b(ii) \u201cLLM2Attn\u201d\uff08\u5c06LLM\u66ff\u6362\u4e3a\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5c42\uff09\uff1b(iii) \u201cLLM2Trsf\u201d\uff08\u5c06LLM\u66ff\u6362\u4e3aTransformer\u5757\uff09\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30LLM\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u516b\u4e2a\u6807\u51c6\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

3.1 \u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e09\u79cd\u6700\u8fd1\u4f7f\u7528LLM\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5b9e\u9a8c\u3002\u6240\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u5747\u53d1\u5e03\u4e8e2023\u5e7412\u6708\u81f32024\u5e745\u6708\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u4e14\u5341\u5206\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u5176GitHub\u4ee3\u7801\u5e93\u7d2f\u8ba1\u83b7\u5f97\u4e861,245\u9897\u661f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u603b\u7ed3\u4e8e\u88682\uff0c\u5e76\u91c7\u7528GPT2 [28] \u6216LLaMA [33] \u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5bf9\u9f50\u548c\u5fae\u8c03\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 OneFitsAll [49]<\/strong>\uff1aOneFitsAll\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u79f0\u4e3aGPT4TS\uff0c\u5bf9\u8f93\u5165\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5e94\u7528\u5b9e\u4f8b\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\uff08instance norm\uff09\u548c\u5206\u5757\uff08patching\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5c06\u5176\u8f93\u5165\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ebf\u6027\u5c42\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u53d6\u4f9b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8f93\u5165\u8868\u793a\u3002\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u591a\u5934\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u548c\u524d\u9988\u5c42\u88ab\u51bb\u7ed3\uff0c\u800c\u4f4d\u7f6e\u5d4c\u5165\u548c\u5c42\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\u4f1a\u88ab\u4f18\u5316\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ebf\u6027\u5c42\u5c06\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u9690\u85cf\u72b6\u6001\u8f6c\u6362\u4e3a\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 Time-LLM [14]<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728Time-LLM\u4e2d\uff0c\u8f93\u5165\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u5757\u8fdb\u884c\u6807\u8bb0\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u591a\u5934\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u4e0e\u8bcd\u5d4c\u5165\u7684\u4f4e\u7ef4\u8868\u793a\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u9f50\u3002\u5bf9\u9f50\u8f93\u51fa\u4e0e\u63cf\u8ff0\u6027\u7edf\u8ba1\u7279\u5f81\u7684\u5d4c\u5165\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u88ab\u8f93\u5165\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e14\u51bb\u7ed3\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u3002\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8f93\u51fa\u8868\u793a\u88ab\u5c55\u5e73\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ebf\u6027\u5c42\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u2022 CALF [21]<\/strong>\uff1aCALF\u5c06\u8f93\u5165\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u901a\u9053\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6807\u8bb0\u3002\u5176\u67b6\u6784\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u201c\u6587\u672c\u5206\u652f\u201d\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u4ea4\u53c9\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8868\u793a\u4e0e\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u8bcd\u5d4c\u5165\u7684\u4f4e\u7ef4\u8868\u793a\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u9f50\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u8be5\u8868\u793a\u88ab\u8f93\u5165\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e14\u51bb\u7ed3\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u53d6\u201c\u6587\u672c\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u201c\u65f6\u95f4\u5206\u652f\u201d\u6839\u636e\u8f93\u5165\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5b66\u4e60\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f4e\u79e9\u9002\u914d\u5668\uff0c\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u201c\u65f6\u95f4\u9884\u6d4b\u201d\u5e76\u7528\u4e8e\u63a8\u65ad\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u989d\u5916\u7684\u635f\u5931\u9879\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f3a\u5236\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8868\u793a\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u3002
\n\u53ef\u590d\u73b0\u6027\u8bf4\u660e<\/strong>\uff1a\u5728\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u5b9e\u9a8c\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c3d\u529b\u590d\u73b0\u5176\u539f\u59cb\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u8d85\u53c2\u6570\u3001\u8fd0\u884c\u73af\u5883\u548c\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6a21\u578b\u67b6\u6784\u3001\u8bad\u7ec3\u5faa\u73af\u548c\u6570\u636e\u52a0\u8f7d\u5668\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u786e\u4fdd\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u7ed3\u679c\u4e2d\u9644\u4e0a\u4e86\u539f\u59cb\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u7684\u8bef\u5dee\u6307\u6807\u3002
\n![[Are Language Models Actually Useful forTime Series Forecasting?-\u56fe 1.png]]<\/p>\n

\n

\u56fe 1\uff1a\u56fe1\uff1a\u6240\u6709LLM\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u6982\u8ff0<\/strong>\u2022 \u56fe(a)\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528LLM\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0cLLM\u7ec4\u4ef6\u88ab\u51bb\u7ed3 [14, 13]\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ec4\u4ef6\u4f1a\u8fdb\u884c\u5fae\u8c03 [49, 21, 4]\u3002\u2022 \u56fe(b)\uff1a\u79fb\u9664LLM\u7ec4\u4ef6\uff0c\u4ec5\u4fdd\u7559\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7ed3\u6784\u3002\u2022 \u56fe(c)\uff1a\u7528\u5355\u5c42\u81ea\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u673a\u5236\u66ff\u6362LLM\u7ec4\u4ef6\u3002\u2022 \u56fe(d)\uff1a\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u7684Transformer\u66ff\u6362LLM\u7ec4\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

3.2 Proposed Ablations<\/h2>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u9694\u79bbLLM\u5728\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1a\u79fb\u9664LLM\u7ec4\u4ef6\u6216\u7528\u7b80\u5355\u6a21\u5757\u66ff\u6362\u5b83\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e09\u79cd\u4fee\u6539\uff1a
\n\u2022 w\/o LLM (\u56fe1 (b))<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5b8c\u5168\u79fb\u9664\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5c06\u8f93\u5165\u6807\u8bb0\u4f20\u9012\u5230\u53c2\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u5c42\u3002
\n\u2022 LLM2Attn (\u56fe1 (c))<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u7684\u591a\u5934\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u5c42\u66ff\u6362\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u3002
\n\u2022 LLM2Trsf (\u56fe1 (d))<\/strong>\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u7684Transformer\u5757\u66ff\u6362\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u3002
\n\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4fdd\u6301\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5176\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u4e0d\u53d8\uff08\u53ef\u8bad\u7ec3\uff09\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u56fe1 (a) \u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u79fb\u9664LLM\u540e\uff0c\u8f93\u5165\u7f16\u7801\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u4f20\u9012\u5230\u8f93\u51fa\u6295\u5f71\u5c42\u3002\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u5982\u56fe1 (b) \u6216 (c) \u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u7528\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u6216Transformer\u66ff\u6362LLM\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u539f\u59cb\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u7ed3\u6784\u4e00\u8d77\u8fdb\u884c\u8bad\u7ec3\u3002<\/p>\n

3.3 Datasets and Evaluation Metrics<\/h2>\n

\u57fa\u51c6\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0b\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\uff1a<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. ETT [20]<\/strong>\uff1a\u6db5\u76d6\u4e0e\u7535\u529b\u53d8\u538b\u5668\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u4e03\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5206\u4e3a\u56db\u4e2a\u5b50\u96c6\uff1aETTh1 \u548c ETTh2\uff08\u6bcf\u5c0f\u65f6\u8bb0\u5f55\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca ETTm1 \u548c ETTm2\uff08\u6bcf15\u5206\u949f\u8bb0\u5f55\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n
  2. Illness [39]<\/strong>\uff1a\u5305\u542b\u7f8e\u56fd\u75be\u75c5\u63a7\u5236\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08CDC\uff09\u6bcf\u5468\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684\u6d41\u611f\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5c31\u8bca\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6d41\u611f\u75c7\u72b6\u60a3\u8005\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/li>\n
  3. Weather [39]<\/strong>\uff1a\u6765\u81ea2010\u5e74\u81f32013\u5e74\u95f4\u7f8e\u56fd1600\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u672c\u5730\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u70b9\u5305\u542b11\u4e2a\u6c14\u5019\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/li>\n
  4. Traffic [39]<\/strong>\uff1a\u6765\u81ea\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u4ea4\u901a\u90e8\u95e8\u7684\u6bcf\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u6e7e\u533a\u9ad8\u901f\u516c\u8def\u7684\u9053\u8def\u5360\u7528\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n
  5. Electricity [34]<\/strong>\uff1a\u5305\u542b2012\u5e74\u81f32014\u5e74\u95f4321\u4f4d\u7528\u6237\u7684\u6bcf\u5c0f\u65f6\u7528\u7535\u91cf\u6570\u636e\u3002ETT\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3-\u9a8c\u8bc1-\u6d4b\u8bd5\u5212\u5206\u4e3a60%-20%-20%\uff0c\u800cIllness\u3001Weather \u548c Electricity \u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u5212\u5206\u5206\u522b\u4e3a70%-10%-20%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u4fe1\u606f\u5217\u4e8e\u88681\u4e2d\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff08\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5212\u5206\u548c\u89c4\u6a21\uff09\u5df2\u88ab\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b [47, 49, 4, 14, 5, 45, 39, 48]\u3002<\/li>\n
  6. Exchange Rate [17]<\/strong>\uff1a\u6536\u96c6\u4e8e1990\u5e74\u81f32016\u5e74\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u516b\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u3001\u745e\u58eb\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u65b0\u897f\u5170\u548c\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\uff09\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u6c47\u7387\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/li>\n
  7. Covid Deaths [12]<\/strong>\uff1a\u5305\u542b2020\u5e741\u6708\u81f32020\u5e748\u6708\u95f4\uff0c266\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/li>\n
  8. Taxi (30 min) [1]<\/strong>\uff1a\u5305\u542b2015\u5e741\u6708\u81f32016\u5e741\u6708\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5e021214\u4e2a\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u51fa\u79df\u8f66\u884c\u7a0b\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6bcf30\u5206\u949f\u91c7\u96c6\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u5e73\u57471,478\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\u3002<\/li>\n
  9. NN5 (Daily) [12]<\/strong>\uff1a\u5305\u542b\u82f1\u56fd111\u53f0ATM\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u73b0\u91d1\u53d6\u6b3e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u6bcf\u53f0ATM\u6709791\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u70b9\u3002<\/li>\n
  10. FRED-MD [12]<\/strong>\uff1a\u5305\u542b\u81ea1959\u5e741\u67081\u65e5\u4ee5\u6765\u7531\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u53d1\u5e03\u7684107\u4e2a\u6bcf\u6708\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u4eceFRED-MD\u6570\u636e\u5e93\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \u8bc4\u4f30\u6307\u6807\u4e0e\u8bbe\u7f6e<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u7edd\u5bf9\u8bef\u5dee\uff08MAE\uff09\u548c\u5747\u65b9\u8bef\u5dee\uff08MSE\uff09\u6765\u62a5\u544a\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6570\u5b66\u8868\u8fbe\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n

    \u2022 \u7ed9\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b \u4e2a\u5143\u7d20\u7684\u6d4b\u8bd5\u96c6\uff1a<\/p>\n

    $$
    \n\\begin{align}
    \n\\text{MAE} = \\frac{1}{|D|} \\sum_{t_i \\in D} \\left| c_i - \\hat{c}i \\right|
    \n\\
    \n\\text{MSE} = \\frac{1}{|D|} \\sum<\/em>{t_i \\in D} \\left( c_i - \\hat{c}i \\right)^2
    \n\\end{align}
    \n$$
    \n\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c$c<\/em>{i}$\u548c$\\hat{c_i}$ \u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7b2c$i$\u4e2a\u7d22\u5f15\u5904\u7684\u771f\u5b9e\u503c\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u503c\u3002
    \n![[Are Language Models Actually Useful forTime Series Forecasting?-\u56fe 2.png]]<\/p>\n

    \n

    \u56fe2\uff1a\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u793a\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4f7f\u7528LLM\u7684OneFitsAll\u5728ETTh1\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u81ea\u52a9\u6cd5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u91cd\u53e0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fe\u5c55\u793a\u4e86OneFitsAll\u3001CALF\u548cTime-LLM\u5728\u4f7f\u7528LLMs\u548c\u6d88\u878d\uff08\u5373\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528LLM\u3001LLM2Attn\u548cLLM2Trsf\uff09\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u5728ETTh1\u3001ETTm2\u548cElectricity\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u865a\u7ebf\u8868\u793a\u539f\u59cb\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5173\u4e8eMSE\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u53ef\u53c2\u89c1\u9644\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u56fe5\u548c\u56fe6\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

    4 Results<\/h1>\n

    \u5728\u672c\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8be6\u7ec6\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u57fa\u51c6\u5927\u578b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08LLM\uff09\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7814\u7a76\u95ee\u9898\uff1a<\/p>\n

    \u2022 RQ1<\/strong>\uff1a\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63d0\u5347\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\uff1f<\/p>\n

    \u2022 RQ2<\/strong>\uff1a\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5426\u503c\u5f97\u4ed8\u51fa\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\uff1f<\/p>\n

    \u2022 RQ3<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u662f\u5426\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff1f<\/p>\n

    \u2022 RQ4<\/strong>\uff1aLLM\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\uff1f<\/p>\n

    \u2022 RQ5<\/strong>\uff1aLLM\u662f\u5426\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u5b66\u4e60\uff1f<\/p>\n

    \u2022 RQ6<\/strong>\uff1a\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u63d0\u5347\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4f55\u5904\uff1f<\/p>\n

    4.1 \u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u5426\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63d0\u5347\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\uff1f<\/h2>\n

    \u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3LLM\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u672a\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u4ea7\u751f\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9<\/strong>\u3002\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5982\u88683<\/strong>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u572813\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u548c\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bc4\u4f30\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\uff0c\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u572826\/26\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u5747\u4f18\u4e8eTime-LLM\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u572822\/26\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u4f18\u4e8eCALF\uff0c\u572819\/26\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u4f18\u4e8eOneFitsAll\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6309\u7167\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e[49, 14, 21]\u4e2d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5e73\u5747\u3002\u5728\u6240\u6709\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\uff0813\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u548c4\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u957f\u5ea6\uff09\u4e0a\uff0c\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u572835\/40<\/strong>\u300131\/40<\/strong> \u548c 29\/40<\/strong> \u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\u5206\u522b\u4f18\u4e8eTime-LLM\u3001CALF \u548c OneFitsAll\uff08\u57fa\u4e8eMAE\u6307\u6807\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u4e3a\u786e\u4fdd\u516c\u5e73\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u62a5\u544a\u4e86\u6bcf\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u8bba\u6587\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u590d\u73b0\u5b9e\u9a8c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u53c2\u89c1\u9644\u5f55E.1<\/strong>\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u8bc4\u4f30LLM\u4e0e\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4efb\u52a1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e8695%\u81ea\u52a9\u6cd5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4<\/strong>\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5728LLM\u8868\u73b0\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\uff08\u4f8b\u5982OneFitsAll\u5728ETTh1\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/strong>\u4e0a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff0c\u89c1\u56fe2<\/strong>\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u4e0e\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u201cw\/o LLM\u201d\u7684\u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u5728MAE\u6307\u6807\u4e0a\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u663e\u8457\u91cd\u53e0\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u548cMSE\u6307\u6807\u53ef\u53c2\u8003\u9644\u5f55\u4e2d\u56fe5\u548c\u56fe6<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n

    \u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u96be\u4ee5\u5f97\u51faLLM\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n

    4.2 \u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5426\u503c\u5f97\u4ed8\u51fa\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\uff1f<\/h2>\n

    \u5728\u524d\u4e00\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c55\u793a\u4e86LLM\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u5e76\u672a\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\u6027\u80fd<\/strong>\u3002\u5728\u672c\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u6027\u80fd\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u5176\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u8003\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u6570\u4ebf\u751a\u81f3\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u53c2\u6570\u6765\u6267\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53c2\u6570\u88ab\u51bb\u7ed3\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u548c\u63a8\u7406\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u4f9d\u7136\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5f00\u9500\u3002
    \n\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cTime-LLM<\/strong>\u62e5\u67096642M\u53c2\u6570<\/strong>\uff0c\u5728Weather\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a3003\u5206\u949f<\/strong>\uff0c\u800c\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ec5\u67090.245M\u53c2\u6570<\/strong>\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u8bad\u7ec3\u65f6\u95f4\u4e3a2.17\u5206\u949f<\/strong>\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728ETTh1\u548cWeather\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u4e0a\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u88684<\/strong>\u3002
    \n\u5728\u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u603b\u65f6\u95f4\u9664\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u6279\u91cf\u5927\u5c0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f30\u7b97\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6837\u672c\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u95f4<\/strong>\u3002Time-LLM\u3001OneFitsAll \u548c CALF<\/strong>\u5206\u522b\u6bd4\u4fee\u6539\u540e\u7684\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u616228.2\u30012.3 \u548c 1.2 \u500d<\/strong>\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u56fe3<\/strong>\u4e2d\uff0c\u7eff\u8272\u6807\u8bb0\uff08\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\uff09\u901a\u5e38\u4f4e\u4e8e\u7ea2\u8272\u6807\u8bb0\uff08LLM\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u5750\u6807\u8f74\u7684\u5de6\u4fa7\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u5176\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u66f4\u4f4e\u4e14\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u548cMSE\u6307\u6807\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u9644\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u56fe7 \u548c \u56fe8<\/strong>\u3002
    \n\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0cLLM\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5e76\u672a\u5e26\u6765\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u63d0\u5347<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n

    4.3 \u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u662f\u5426\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u8868\u73b0\uff1f<\/h2>\n

    \u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u8bed\u8a00\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u4efb\u52a1\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u7684<\/strong>\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u9a8c\u8bc1\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5b66\u5230\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u6709\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9CALF [21] \u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e0e\u5fae\u8c03\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff1a<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Pretrain + Finetune (Pre+FT)<\/strong>
      \n\u8fd9\u662f\u539f\u59cb\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5fae\u8c03\u3002\u5728CALF\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u88ab\u51bb\u7ed3\uff0c\u5e76\u5b66\u4e60\u4f4e\u79e9\u9002\u914d\u5668\uff08LoRA\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n
    2. Random Initialization + Finetune (woPre+FT)<\/strong>
      \n\u8bed\u8a00\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u5b66\u4e60\u5230\u7684\u6587\u672c\u77e5\u8bc6\u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\uff1f\u5728\u6b64\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u968f\u673a\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6743\u91cd\uff08\u6d88\u9664\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff09\uff0c\u4ece\u96f6\u5f00\u59cb\u8bad\u7ec3LLM\u3002<\/li>\n
    3. Pretrain + No Finetuning (Pre+woFT)<\/strong>
      \n\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u5fae\u8c03\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7ebf\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u540c\u6837\u51bb\u7ed3\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e0d\u5b66\u4e60LoRAs\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u672a\u989d\u5916\u6307\u5bfc\u4e0b\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/li>\n
    4. Random Initialization + No Finetuning (woPre+woFT)<\/strong>
      \n\u8be5\u57fa\u7ebf\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c06\u8f93\u5165\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u968f\u673a\u6295\u5f71\u5230\u9884\u6d4b\u8f93\u51fa\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u53c2\u8003\u3002
      \n\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u88685<\/strong>\u4e2d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u57288\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/strong>\u4e0a\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8eMAE\u548cMSE\u6307\u6807\uff1a
      \n\u2022 \u201cPretraining + Finetune\u201d<\/strong> \u65b9\u6cd5\u57283\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u4f73\uff1b
      \n\u2022 \u201cRandom Initialization + Finetune\u201d<\/strong> \u65b9\u6cd5\u57288\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u4f73\u3002
      \n\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u8bed\u8a00\u77e5\u8bc6\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650<\/strong>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u201cPretrain + No Finetuning\u201d<\/strong> \u548c \u57fa\u7ebf\u201cRandom Initialization + No Finetuning\u201d<\/strong> \u5206\u522b\u57285\u6b21\u548c0\u6b21\u5b9e\u9a8c\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u6700\u4f73\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8bc1\u660e\u8bed\u8a00\u77e5\u8bc6\u5728\u5fae\u8c03\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u8d21\u732e<\/strong>\u3002\u8be6\u7ec6\u7ed3\u679c\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u9644\u5f55\u4e2d\u7684\u886820<\/strong>\u3002
      \n\u603b\u7ed3<\/strong>\uff1a\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u6587\u672c\u77e5\u8bc6\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u6781\u4e3a\u6709\u9650<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      4.4 LLM\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\uff1f<\/h2>\n

      \u5927\u591a\u6570\u4f7f\u7528LLM\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u5fae\u8c03\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7f16\u7801<\/strong>\u6765\u5e2e\u52a9\u7406\u89e3\u5e8f\u5217\u4e2d\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e [4, 49, 21, 5, 31]\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u5177\u5907\u826f\u597d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u8868\u793a\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u5f53\u8f93\u5165\u6570\u636e\u88ab\u6253\u4e71\u65f6\uff0c\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u80fd\u4f1a\u663e\u8457\u4e0b\u964d [45]\u3002
      \n\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\u5e94\u7528\u4e86\u4e09\u79cd\u6253\u4e71\u64cd\u4f5c\uff1a<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. \u968f\u673a\u6253\u4e71\u6574\u4e2a\u5e8f\u5217<\/strong>\uff08\u201csf-all\u201d\uff09\uff0c<\/li>\n
      2. \u4ec5\u6253\u4e71\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u524d\u534a\u90e8\u5206<\/strong>\uff08\u201csf-half\u201d\uff09\uff0c<\/li>\n
      3. \u4ea4\u6362\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u524d\u534a\u90e8\u5206\u548c\u540e\u534a\u90e8\u5206<\/strong>\uff08\u201cex-half\u201d\uff09\u3002
        \n\u5982\u88686<\/strong>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8eLLM\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u8f93\u5165\u6253\u4e71\u65f6\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5e76\u4e0d\u6bd4\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u66f4\u8106\u5f31<\/strong>\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0cLLM\u5728\u8868\u793a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5e8f\u5217\u4f9d\u8d56\u5173\u7cfb\u65b9\u9762\u5e76\u65e0\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u4f18\u52bf<\/strong>\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        4.5 LLM\u662f\u5426\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u5b66\u4e60\uff1f<\/h2>\n

        \u672c\u8282\u8bc4\u4f30\u8868\u660e\uff0cLLM\u5728\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u5b66\u4e60\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u4ecd\u672a\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5b9e\u7528\u4ef7\u503c<\/strong>\u3002
        \n\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793aLLM\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u65e0\u660e\u663e\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u4f46\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u6743\u91cd\u4e2d\u7f16\u7801\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6570\u636e\u7a00\u7f3a\u7684\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u4e3a\u9a8c\u8bc1\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u768410%\u6570\u636e\u91cf<\/strong>\u4e0a\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e86\u6a21\u578b\u53ca\u5176\u6d88\u878d\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u5bf9Time-LLM\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e2d\u7684LLaMA<\/strong>\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002
        \n\u2022 \u88687<\/strong>\u4e2d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c06LLaMA\u4e0e\u5b8c\u5168\u53bb\u9664LLM<\/strong>\uff08w\/o LLM\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u5206\u522b\u57288\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d<\/strong>\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u5dee\u5f02\u5e76\u4e0d\u660e\u663e\u3002
        \n\u2022 \u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u57fa\u4e8eGPT-2\u7684CALF\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong>\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u89c1\u88688<\/strong>\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u573a\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u751a\u81f3\u4f18\u4e8eLLM\u3002
        \n\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0cLLM\u5728\u5c11\u6837\u672c\u5b66\u4e60\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5e76\u672a\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4f18\u52bf<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n

        4.6 \u6027\u80fd\u63d0\u5347\u5230\u5e95\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f<\/h2>\n

        \u5728\u672c\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86LLM\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u7f16\u7801\u6280\u672f<\/strong>\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7ed3\u5408\u5206\u6bb5\uff08Patching\uff09\u4e0e\u5355\u5c42\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u673a\u5236\uff08One-Layer Attention\uff09<\/strong> \u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u4e14\u6709\u6548\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u5728\u7b2c3.2\u5c0f\u8282<\/strong>\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u7b80\u5355\u7684LLM\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e76\u672a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6027\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d<\/strong>\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4f55\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7b80\u5355\u65b9\u6cd5\u8868\u73b0\u5982\u6b64\u51fa\u8272\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5728LLM\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u7f16\u7801\u6280\u672f<\/strong>\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a
        \n\u2022 \u5206\u6bb5\uff08Patching\uff09<\/strong> [49, 14, 5, 31, 21]\uff0c
        \n\u2022 \u5206\u89e3\uff08Decomposition\uff09<\/strong> [4, 27]\uff0c
        \n\u2022 \u57fa\u672cTransformer\u6a21\u5757<\/strong> \u4e5f\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8f85\u52a9\u7f16\u7801 [21]\u3002
        \n\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7f16\u7801\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u6df1\u5165\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u7b80\u5355\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e3a\u4f55\u5728\u6027\u80fd\u4e0a\u80fd\u591f\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u7684LLM\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u5ab2\u7f8e\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u8d8a\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u5177\u4f53\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u9644\u5f55\u886818<\/strong>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u7ed3\u5408\u5206\u6bb5\uff08Patching\uff09\u548c\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u673a\u5236<\/strong>\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u547d\u540d\u4e3aPAttn<\/strong> \uff0c\u5728\u8f83\u5c0f\u7684\u6570\u636e\u96c6\uff08\u65f6\u95f4\u6233\u5c11\u4e8e100\u4e07\uff09\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u4f18\u4e8e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5176\u4ed6\u7f16\u7801\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0eLLM\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u5ab2\u7f8e\u3002\u5176\u8be6\u7ec6\u7ed3\u6784\u5982\u56fe4<\/strong>\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6b65\u9aa4\uff1a<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. \u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5e94\u7528\u5b9e\u4f8b\u5f52\u4e00\u5316\uff08Instance Norm\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c<\/li>\n
        2. \u968f\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u6bb5\uff08Patching\uff09\u548c\u6295\u5f71<\/strong>\uff0c<\/li>\n
        3. \u6700\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u5355\u5c42\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u673a\u5236<\/strong>\u5b9e\u73b0\u5206\u6bb5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7279\u5f81\u5b66\u4e60\u3002
          \n\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8f83\u5927\u6570\u636e\u96c6<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Traffic<\/strong>\uff08\u7ea61500\u4e07\u6761\uff09\u548cElectricity<\/strong>\uff08\u7ea6800\u4e07\u6761\uff09\uff0c\u540d\u4e3a\u201cLTrsf\u201d<\/strong>\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86CALF [21] \u7684\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u901a\u8fc7\u5355\u4e2a\u7ebf\u6027\u5c42<\/strong>\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5d4c\u5165\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u5f71\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u9884\u6d4b\u3002
          \n\u5176\u4ed6\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u7ed3\u6784\u53ef\u53c2\u89c1\u9644\u5f55D.3\u5c0f\u8282<\/strong>\u3002
          \n\u7efc\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5206\u6bb5\uff08Patching\uff09\u5728\u7f16\u7801\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u8d77\u5230\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u673a\u5236\uff08Attention\uff09<\/strong> \u548c Transformer\u6a21\u5757<\/strong>\u4e5f\u5728\u7f16\u7801\u4e2d\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          5. Conclusion<\/h1>\n

          \u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1LLM\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u9886\u57df<\/strong>\u5907\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u5e76\u672a\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u6d88\u878d\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong>\u5728\u6027\u80fd\u4e0a\u4e0eLLM\u65b9\u6cd5\u76f8\u5f53\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u4f18\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5927\u5927\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u3002
          \n\u9700\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u5e76\u975e\u5ba3\u79f0LLM\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u6beb\u65e0\u7528\u5904<\/strong>\u3002\u505a\u51fa\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fc7\u4e8e\u77ed\u89c6\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u8bae\u7814\u7a76\u793e\u533a\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u70b9\u653e\u5728LLM\u4e0e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7ed3\u5408<\/strong>\u6240\u80fd\u6fc0\u53d1\u7684\u66f4\u5177\u524d\u666f\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a
          \n\u2022 \u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u63a8\u7406<\/strong> [24, 7, 44, 36]\uff0c
          \n\u2022 \u793e\u4f1a\u7406\u89e3<\/strong> [6]\u3002
          \n\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4efb\u52a1\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u4e0e\u8bed\u8a00\u4ea4\u4e92\u9886\u57df\u7684\u65b0\u7a81\u7834\u70b9\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u63a2\u7d22\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Abstract \u5927\u578b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08LLMs\uff09\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u9886\u57df\u3002\u4f46\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u771f\u7684\u6709\u7528\u5417\uff1f […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[105,11],"tags":[116,117],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/991"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=991"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/991\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":992,"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/991\/revisions\/992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/tamanegi.xyz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}